The districts seeing the most spending show why House Democrats are in trouble

“Democrats are playing both offense and defense to stop MAGA extremists from sending our country backwards,” said Tommy Garcia, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Redistricting after the 2020 Census shrunk the number of truly competitive seats, with Republicans in particular able to shore up districts that Democrats might have targeted in past elections. That trend, coupled with a national environment driven by Biden approval ratings in the low 40s, has cut back Democrats’ pickup prospects.

Republicans have also thrown last-minute funds into several bluer districts. Among the districts attracting the most TV and radio money in the final weeks before Election Day is New York’s 17th District, where Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) is facing an unexpectedly difficult challenge from Republican Michael Lawler. Democrats are poised to spend $2.3 million in the race between now and Election Day compared to shy of $1.4 million for Republicans. The race had seen little spending from either party prior to October.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, House Republicans’ primary super PAC, also added buys this week in Democratic-held districts in Illinois and New York that were once seen as safe holds for the party.

“Money talks and the money is saying House Republicans are pushing deep into Democrat-held territory. That’s bad news for every vulnerable Democrat,” said Michael McAdams, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Even with the last-minute GOP ad buys, Democrats are still spending more on House races in the final weekend, reflecting the party’s candidate-level fundraising advantage and a strong finish for its lead super PAC, House Majority PAC.

The group is set to spend more than $50 million from Nov. 1 through Election Day, according to AdImpact. And the 10 seats where it is spending the most over that period are all districts Democrats are trying to hold.

Ally Mutnick contributed reporting.